New Portfolio Strategies

I've written on several occasions beginning here regarding the merits of market timing systems and I have also suggested a few portfolios. I've decided to start updating ETF portfolios on a monthly basis on the first of the month . I may add portfolios with time, but we will start with three portfolios: A starter 5 position portfolio inspired in part by Mebane Faber, Paul Merriman's ETF portfolio (allocation for this article is the 'moderate' Merriman portfolio), and a custom portfolio which includes some alternative assets.

I will be posting the 200 and 120 day moving averages, which approximately represent a 10 and 6 month average. The ETFs trading above the 200 day moving average will be highlighted in bold (2 of the ETFs in my custom portfolio have not been trading for 200 days). For background on the rational behind using a moving average system, please read my previous work.

In addition, and most likely beginning on the 15th of this month, I will be starting an asset class rotation system. More on that later...




For those wishing to do more research on market timing, please check Scott's Investments in the next 1-2 weeks as I will be posting some interesting reads in addition to the ones already posted on my site.

It is interesting to note that nearly all ETFs in the listed portfolios are a "buy" as determined by the 200 day moving average. This system is probably the easiest of all timing systems to implement, but serves as a good starting point for investors wishing to take a more active role in their portfolio management. To have a free trend analysis of VTI, VNQ, DBC or any other symbol sent to your inbox instantly, click here. The portfolios (for education use only, not intended as investment advice):

	Symbol	Allocation	July 1st Close	200 Day MA	120 Day MA
	VTI (US Stock)	20.00%	46.54	44.21	42.37
Basic	VEU (Intl Stock)	20.00%	36.55	32.02	30.92
Portfolio	BND (Bond)	20.00%	77.38	75.58	76.55
	VNQ (REIT)	20.00%	31.55	33.18	28.96
	DBC (Commodity)	20.00%	22.53	22.51	20.88
	US Stock
	SPY (US Lcap)	6.75%	92.33	88.43	84.8
Merriman	VTV (value)	6.75%	39.71	39.1	36.73
Model ETF	IWC (microcap)	6.75%	33.54	30.96	29.11
(moderate)	VBR (small value)	6.75%	44.01	41.4	38.7
	REIT
	WPS (world ex-us property)	3.00%	26.6	22.37	21.38
	VNQ (REIT)	3.00%	31.55	33.18	28.96
	International
	EFA (EAFE)	5.40%	46.57	41.82	40.28
	VSS (all world ex us small)	5.40%	66.6	--	--
	DLS (intl small dividend)	5.40%	37.01	33.22	31.63
	VWO (emerging markets)	5.40%	32.49	25.97	26.08
	Bond
	SHY (1-3 Year Treasury)	12.00%	83.68	83.21	83.5
	IEF (7-10 Year Treasury)	20.00%	90.36	91.77	92.9
	TIP (tips)	8.00%	101.04	97.6	98.9
	US Stock
	SPY	5.00%	92.33	88.43	84.8
Scott's	VTV	5.00%	39.71	39.1	36.73
Alternative	VO (midcap)	5.00%	47.16	43.9	42.51
	VBR	5.00%	44.01	41.4	38.7
	IWC	5.00%	33.54	30.96	29.11
	International
	EFA	5.00%	46.57	41.82	40.28
	VWO	5.00%	32.49	25.97	26.08
	EFV	5.00%	42.74	37.77	36.37
	DLS	5.00%	37.01	33.22	31.63
	FRN	5.00%	15.46	13.09	12.46
	Bond
	IEF	4.00%	90.36	91.77	92.9
	TIP	4.00%	101.04	97.6	98.9
	LQD (corporate)	4.00%	99.7	92.47	95.28
	BWX (intl treasury)	4.00%	54.91	51.37	51.74
	ESD (emerging markets)	4.00%	14.87	11.68	12.47
	REIT
	VNQ	5.00%	31.55	33.18	28.96
	WPS	5.00%	26.6	22.37	21.38
	Alternative
	DBC (db commodities)	4.00%	22.53	22.51	20.88
	LSC (commodity momentum)	4.00%	9.39	10.16	9.95
	GDX (gold miners)	4.00%	39.41	32.21	35.74
	DBV (currency harvest)	4.00%	21.42	20.35	20.16
	QAI (hedge fund)	4.00%	26.07	--	--